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Fundamental Analysis "101"

Fundamental Analysis

Whether you trade in; be it currencies, commodities, stocks, bonds or any other form of security, the only way to make a profit in trading is to master the art of analyzing the market and accurately predicting the movement of prices.

There are two distinctly different forms of analysis in trading: technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

Technical Analysis is based on the in-depth study of prices. It aims to predict future prices by analyzing the history of the movement of prices.

Fundamental Analysis is more of a “Big Picture” analysis; it is based on the study of the overall economic health of the nation. It works on the principle that the future prices of the currency are directly related to the supply and demand of the currency, which in turn is affected by the strength of a nation’s economy.

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Let’s look at this example. When the US economy is strong and in a major upswing, there is almost always a complementary increase in the value of the dollar. At this time currency traders will expectedly make heavy investments in the dollar, which in turn increases the value of the dollar even more in a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

Though theoretically fundamental analysis sounds very straightforward and uncomplicated, attempting to determine and keep track of a nation’s economic status is far from easy. There are numerous factors that need to be taken into consideration and traders are more likely than not to read the same facts and figures and then interpret them differently.

Fundamental analysts study several different economic indicators in an attempt to ascertain the strength of an economy. Some of the important indicators that are taken into consideration include consumer price index, interest rate, gross domestic product (GDP) and unemployment rate.

If you intend taking the fundamental analysis route, you should make it a point to read reports that are regularly released by several different government as well as non-government agencies. Find out the dates of upcoming releases and keep track of how the currency prices are affected. In due course, you will see an emerging trend.

Remember that it is not necessarily only the numbers within the report that will influence the forex market; what is even more important is the relation between the numbers that were forecasted and those that were actually recorded.

What this means is that an increase in interest rates may not have as huge an influence on the market prices if this increase was expected and had already been forecasted. On the other hand, if there is an unexpected increase in interest rates despite the fact that the trade pundits had predicted that otherwise; this could affect the currency prices tremendously.

The biggest drawback of fundamental analysis is that the “big picture” can sometimes be a little too big a picture. While it is an excellent way to forecast economic growth by and large, the details it offers are not adequate enough to accurately target specific entry or exit points.

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